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Mexico; Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2007
This Selected Issues paper analyzes external shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Mexico. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S. demand shocks—and other foreign disturbances—in explaining Mexican output fluctuations. It identifies the dynamic response of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245436
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Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages
Helbling, Thomas; Bayoumi, Tamim - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper reviews the international business cycle among Group of Seven (G-7) countries since 1973 from two angles. An examination of business cycle synchronization among these countries using simple descriptive statistics shows that synchronized slowdowns have been the norm rather than the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264125
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A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa
Gumata, Nombulelo; Ndou, Eliphas; Klein, Nir - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman filter), which identify an unobservable common factor from a group of external and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142098
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Filtering German Economic Conditions from a Large Dataset: The New DIW Economic Barometer
Viefers, Paul; Fichtner, Ferdinand; Junker, Simon; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2014
several practical advantages, we also document a better historical nowcasting performance of the new index. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010933108
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Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available
Lee, Kevin; Olekalns, Nils; Shields, Kalvinder K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
A canonical model is described which reflects the real-time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with ‘conventional’ models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528535
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Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available
Olekalns, Nilss; Shields, Kalvinder - Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics - 2008
A canonical model is described which reflects the real time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with ‘conventional’ models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005750829
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Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data
Guérin, Pierre; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
This paper estimates and forecasts U.S. business cycle turning points with state-level data. The probabilities of recession are obtained from univariate and multivariate regime-switching models based on a pairwise combination of national and state-level data. We use two classes of combination...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111725
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Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions
Aruoba, S. Boragan; Diebold, Francis X. - Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania - 2010
We sketch a framework for monitoring macroeconomic activity in real-time and push it in new directions. In particular, we focus not only on real activity, which has received most attention to date, but also on inflation and its interaction with real activity. As for the recent recession, we find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008493139
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A note on GDP now-/forecasting with dynamic versus static factor models along a business cycle
Buss, Ginters - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
nowcasting performance during a pronounced switch of business cycle phases due to the latest recession. We compare the factor … models' nowcasting performance to a random walk, autoregressive and the best-performing nowcasting models at our hands, which … improve upon the nowcasting performance of the VAR models when the model span and the nowcasting period stretch beyond a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008470462
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Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: A model comparison for German GDP
Marcellino, Massimiliano; Schumacher, Christian - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
. Our empirical findings show that the factor estimation methods don't differ much with respect to nowcasting accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124208