This paper empirically investigates the determinants of key benchmark interest rates in China using an array of constrained ordered probit models for quarterly frequency data from 1987 to 2013. Specifically, we estimate the behavioral equation of the People's Bank of China that models their...

This paper presents a factor-based forecasting model for the financial market vulnerability in the U.S. We estimate latent common factors via the method of the principal components from 170 monthly frequency macroeconomic data to out-of-sample forecast the Cleveland Financial Stress Index. Our...

This research proposes a solution framework based on discrete-event simulation, sequential bifurcation (SB) and response surface methodology (RSM) to address a multi-response optimization problem inherent in an auto parts supply chain. The objective is to identify the most efficient operating...

We present a solution framework based on discrete-event simulation and enhanced robust design technique to address a multi-response optimization problem inherent in logistics management. The objective is to design a robust configuration for a cross-docking distribution center so that the system...

The goal of factor screening is to find the really important inputs (factors) among the many inputs that may be changed in a realistic simulation experiment. A specific method is sequential bifurcation (SB), which is a sequential method that changes groups of inputs simultaneously. SB is most...

This paper investigates the effect of dollar depreciation on the US tourism trade balance. Export revenue and import spending functions are estimated separately with structural vector autoregressive methods to better capture dynamic adjustments to exchange rate shocks. Quarterly data cover the...

This note discusses a pitfall of using the generalized impulse response function (GIRF) in vector autoregressive (VAR) models (Pesaran and Shin, 1998). The GIRF is general because it is invariant to the ordering of the variables in the VAR. The GIRF, in fact, is extreme because it yields a set...

Estimation of the employment effects of changes in capital investment is a standard tool in public policy debates. Typically, such predictions are based on employment multipliers derived from Input-Output analysis. In this paper, we measure the employment effects of changes in capital investment...