This paper uses Monte Carlo methods to investigate the effects of asymmetricadjustment on estimates of the parameters of the equilibrium relationshipbetween a set of variables. We demonstrate that simple least squares estimatesand the implicit estimates from a symmetric error correction model...

The adoption of inflation targets by a number of industrialised countries in the last decade has reawakened interest in the study of rules to characterise monetary policy. In the literature a clear distinction is drawn between instrument rules, such as that of Taylor, which are backward looking,...

This article investigates the power of CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests for parameter stability and demonstrates that this depends on the nature of the structural change taking place. If the break is in the intercept of the regression equation then the CUSUM test has higher power. However, if the...

This paper seeks to demonstrate that a backward looking specification of the IS curve using UK data can encompass the forward looking model recently discussed by Kara and Nelson (2004). By relaxing the restriction that the interest rate and the inflation rate enter the IS curve with coefficients...

This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations for the Johansen cointegration test which indicate that the critical values applied in a number of econometrics software packages are inappropriate. This is due to a confusion in the specification of the deterministic terms included in the VECM between...

This article uses the Chow--Lin (1971) procedure to generate estimates of quarterly gross domestic product for the UK economy over the period January 1920 to April 1938. This series is then used to estimate a cointegrating relationship between employment, real wages and aggregate output.

Demand functions for broad money and foreign currency deposits are estimated using quarterly Mexican data for the period 1978:1 to 2000:4. Significant evidence is found for currency substitution in the broad money equation. While the demand function for foreign currency deposits is harder to...

In this paper we estimate limited dependent variable models for Bank of England monetary policy using monthly data over the period June 1997 to March 2003. During this period the Bank has had operational independence to set the interest rate in order to meet the inflation target set by the...

This paper presents estimates of price functions for beef, lamb and pork for the UK economy which allow for the effects of the 1996 BSE crisis. Our estimates illustrate the importance of allowing for the joint endogeneity of prices in these markets. We show that the effects of this crisis had a...