Seit dem vierten Quartal 2014 wird im Rahmen des »Ifo World Economic Survey« (WES) die Frage nach der erwarteten Inflationsrate in drei bis fünf Jahren gestellt. Die Ergebnisse dieser Frage werden für einzelne Länder sowie aggregiert für wichtige Wirtschaftsräume (wie z.B. den Euroraum)...

Im August übertraf der Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise in Deutschland mit 2,1% erstmals seit 31 Monaten wieder die 2%-Marke (Westdeutschland: 2,0%; Ostdeutschland: 2,4%). In Westdeutschland ist die Rate im September nach vorläufigen Schätzungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes zwar wieder auf 1,8%...

This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and to...

In this paper we explore the role that exchange rate interventions may play in determining inflation expectations in Chile. To that end, we consider a set of nine deciles of inflation expectations coming from the survey of professional forecasters carried out by the Central Bank of Chile. We...

We use laboratory experiments with human subjects to test the relevance of different inflation targeting regimes. In particular and within the standard New Keynesian model, we evaluate to what extent communication of the inflation target is relevant to the success of inflation targeting. We find...

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended Phillips Curve (PC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results...

The recent financial crisis that has led some central banks reaching the zero lower bound of their interest rate to use unconventional monetary policy instruments, has brought to the forefront the academic discussions on the shift from inflation targeting (IT) to price level targeting. This...

This paper presents a brief analysis of representative measures of inflation expectations from Central Bank of Brazil's Survey of Professional Forecasts that are alternative to the median response. We build time series with the mode and core measures of inflation expectations from the panel of...

It is conventionally held that countries are worse off by forming a monetary union when it comes to macroeconomic stabilization. However, this conventional view relies on assuming that monetary policy is conducted optimally. Relaxing the assumption of optimal monetary policy not only uncovers...

There have recently been suggestions for monetary policy to engineer higher inflation expectations so as to stimulate current spending. But what is the empirical relationship between in?ation expectations and spending? We use the underlying micro data from the Michigan Survey of Consumers to...