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market characteristic. iv) The volatility of the realized volatility is not constant and common to all. v) A forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009294859
of the realized volatility is not constant and common to all. v) A forecasting horse race against 8 competing models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862270
The objective of this paper is to analyze and analytically quantify the effect of additive outliers in the forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005075773
This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model with different long-memory processes in both regimes. We briefly present the memory properties of this model and propose an estimation method. Such a process is applied to the absolute and squared returns of five stock indices. A comparison with simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010750892
Empirical ?ndings related to the time series properties of stock returns volatility indicate autocorrelations that decay slowly at long lags. In light of this, several long-memory models have been proposed. However, the possibility of level shifts has been advanced as a possible explanation for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004991570
It has been acknowledged that wavelets can constitute a useful tool for forecasting in economics. Through a wavelet … each component to improve the forecast accuracy of the series as a whole. Up to now, the literature on forecasting with … research has emerged on forecasting with large datasets. In particular, the use of factor‐augmented models have become quite …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990712
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010994463
variable selection and estimation in one step. We evaluate the forecasting accuracy of these estimators for a large set of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851261
In this paper, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886225
We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010902106