Commodity prices are expected to remain weak for the remainder of 2014 and, perhaps through much of 2015. Crude oil has seen one of the sharpest declines, down more than 20 percent to $83/barrel (bbl) on October 15 from this year’s high of $108/bbl in mid-June. Agricultural prices have...

Geopolitical concerns in Iraq and Ukraine/Russia earlier in the year put upward pressure on oil prices during the second quarter. As tensions moderate, oil prices are expected to decline in 2015. Metal prices eased during the 2014Q2 due to supply response from earlier investments and weakening...

With the exception of energy, all the key commodity price indices declined significantly in 2013. Fertilizer prices led the decline, down 17.4 percent from 2012, followed by precious metals (down almost 17 percent), agriculture (-7.2 percent), and metals (-5.5 percent). Crude oil prices (World...

The key commodity price indices were broadly stable during 2014. Energy prices changed little, only 0.4 higher than 2013; agricultural prices increased 1.8 percent on weather-related concerns and metal prices declined 3.2 percent on Chinese demand weakness. Agricultural prices are projected to ease...

Russia’s economy contracted 4.6 percent in the second quarter, year-on-year, after a 2.2 percent contraction in the first quarter, but in June the pace of contraction slowed. Russia’s second quarter balance of payment remained stable despite a weaker trade balance as the current account...

In June, the European Council extended EU economic sanctions against Russia for another six months while Russia extended its food import ban against Western countries for a year. A fluid situation on global financial markets and yet again lower growth prospects led to oil prices losing ground in...

With the benefit of hindsight, this paper provides a fresh and comprehensive look at the causes of the 2014-16 collapse in oil prices and its impact on the global economy. It disentangles the contribution of supply and demand factors, assesses the impact on activity in oil exporters and oil...

After 2005, commodity prices experienced their longest and broadest boom since World War II. Agricultural prices have now come down considerably since their 2011 peak, but are still 40 percent higher in real terms than their 2000 lows. This paper briefly addresses the main arguments on the...

This note combines and distills existing and new research to inform discussion on the topical policy issue of oil prices. Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel (bbl), oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014 and are expected to remain low for a considerable...

Previous sharp oil price declines have been accompanied by elevated ex post volatility. In contrast, volatility was much less elevated during the oil price crash in 2014/15. This paper provides evidence that oil prices declined in a relatively measured manner during 2014/15, with dispersion of...