Nominal interest rates are unlikely to be generated by unit-root processes. Using data on short and long interest rates from eight developed and six emerging economies, we test the expectations hypothesis using cointegration methods under the assumption that interest rates are near integrated....

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to assess whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the USA. We investigate the issue of Granger-causality out-of-sample and find that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting...

In this article, we evaluate forecasting models for Swedish GDP growth which make use of data from Sweden's most important business survey, the <italic>Economic Tendency Survey</italic>. Employing nine years of quarterly real-time data, we conduct an out-of-sample forecast exercise. Results indicate that the...

In this article, we evaluate two types of Swedish policy interest-rate expectations: survey expectations and expectations inferred from market pricing. The data are drawn from the most prominent survey of financial-market economists and from Swedish financial markets, and they are carefully...

In this article, a Bayesian VAR model is used to study the effects of euro area shocks on GDP growth in the small open economy of Sweden. A novel feature is that the new policy uncertainty index of Baker <italic>et al.</italic> (2013) is introduced in the model. The model behaves well in terms of reasonable...

In this paper, we study the effects of US policy uncertainty – measured as the policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (2013) – on Swedish GDP growth. Another source of spillovers of shocks to small open economies is thereby examined. We apply both Bayesian VAR models and spectral analysis...

In this paper, the author evaluates forecasting models for Swedish GDP growth which make use of data from Sweden´s most important business survey, the Economic Tendency Survey. <p> Employing nine years of quarterly real-time data, an out-of-sample forecast exercise is conducted. Results indicate...</p>

In this paper, forecasting models for Swedish business investment growth which make use of data from Sweden’s most important business survey – the Economic Tendency Survey – are evaluated. <p> An out-of-sample forecast exercise using nine years of quarterly real-time data is conducted. The...</p>

We test for the presence of a unit root in U.S. GDP and CPI, allowing for non-linear trend reversion under the alternative hypothesis. In contrast to most previous results, we find evidence in favour of trend stationarity for both variables.