This paper first shows that survey-based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in U.S. quarterly inflation out-of-sample prediction and that the term structure of survey-based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes...

Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S. inflation out-of-sample: time series ARIMA models; regressions using real activity measures motivated from the Phillips curve; term structure models that include linear, non-linear, and arbitrage-free...

We propose a no-arbitrage model that jointly explains the dynamics of consumer prices as well as the nominal and real term structures of risk-free rates. In our framework, distinct core, food, and energy price series combine into a measure of total inflation to price nominal Treasuries. This...

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do...

The paper consists of four parts each of them devoted to a practical aspect of inflation targeting as conducted by the Czech National Bank. The first part outlines the reasons that led to the adoption of this monetary regime and summarises other advantages for effective and transparent...

Using four decades of data, this empirical study adopts a loanable funds model to investigate the impact of the federal government budget deficit in the U.S. on the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes. For the 40-year period 1973-2012, an autoregressive 2SLS estimate...

This paper tests for effects from domestic and international macroeconomic developments on the determination of nominal long-term interest rates in Asia-Pacific bond Markets. We show that well specified equations can be estimated which confirm the importance of domestic as well as international...

This paper finds that the yield spread of investment-grade bonds relative to Treasuries, a proxy of default risk, predicts marginal changes in industrial production in the United States up to 12 months in the future, even upon controlling for a commonly used predictor such as the commercial...

Economic theory suggests that financial health of the corporate sector can trigger or worsen an economy-wide recession. This paper proposes a measure of corporate vulnerability, the Corporate Vulnerability Index (CVI), and analyzes whether it can explain the probability and severity of...