This paper examines the link between capital market governance (CMG) and several key measures of market performance. Using detailed data from individual stock exchanges, we develop a composite CMG index that captures three dimensions of security laws: the degree of earnings opacity, the...

This paper explores the link between capital market governance and several key characteristics of equity markets. Using detailed data glean from individual stock exchanges, we develop a composite capital market governance measure (CMG index) that captures three dimensions of market regulation...

Previous work on crude oil price modeling has generally focused on two theoretical approaches, either the optimal control analysis of pricing of a depletable resource, or OPEC as a partial monopolist setting oil prices to maximize net present value. Neither has been wholly satisfactory. We...

The skewness of the conditional return distribution plays a significant role in financial theory and practice. This paper examines whether conditional skewness of daily aggregate market returns is predictable and investigates the economic mechanisms underlying this predictability. In both...

We study the impact of analyst forecasts on prices to determine whether investors learn about analyst accuracy. Our test market is the crude oil futures market. Prices rise when analysts forecast a decrease (increase) in crude supplies. In the 15 minutes following supply realizations, prices...

This study investigates the usefulness and efficacy of a multiobjective decision method for financial trading guided by a set of seemingly diverse analysts' forecasts. The paper proposes a goal programming (GP) approach which combines various forecasts based on the performance of their previous...

Predicting currency movements has always been a problematic task as most conventional econometric models are not able to forecast exchange rates with significantly higher accuracy than a naive random walk model. For large multinational firms which conduct substantial currency transfers in the...

Despite abundant research which focuses on estimating the level of return on stock market index, there is a lack of studies examining the predictability of the direction/sign of stock index movement. Given the notion that a prediction with little forecast error does not necessarily translate...

This paper contributes empirical evidence to the debate on short sales. Our examination of how market-wide short-sale restrictions affect aggregate market returns focuses on two main questions: What is the effect of short-sale restrictions on skewness, volatility, the probability of market...

The characteristics of the distribution of security returns, such as skewness, play a significant role in financial theory and practice. This paper examines whether conditional skewness of daily aggregate market returns is predictable and investigates the economic mechanisms underlying this...