This paper analyzes a family of multivariate point process models of correlated event timing whose arrival intensity is driven by an affine jump diffusion. The components of an affine point process are self- and cross-exciting, and facilitate the description of complex event dependence...

This paper introduces a new semi-parametric methodology for the implied volatility surface, which incorporates machine learning algorithms. Given a starting model, a tree boosting algorithm sequentially minimizes the residuals of observed and estimated implied volatility. To overcome the poor...

We test a theory that provides a simple and robust linkage between the market prices of credit default swaps (CDS) and far out-of-the-money equity American put options on the same reference company. The linkage is established under a general class of stock price dynamics. We assume that the...

A credit derivative is a path dependent contingent claim on the aggregate loss in a portfolio of credit sensitive securities. We estimate the value of a credit derivative by Monte Carlo simulation of the affine point process that models the loss. We consider two algorithms that exploit the...

With a portfolio of options on Samp;P 500 index, the Chicago Board of Options Exchange constructs a volatility index named VIX that approximates the 30-day return variance swap rate on the index. Using high-frequency return data, researchers have proposed various return quadratic variation...

We develop a simple robust link between deep out-of-the-money American put options on a company's stock and a credit insurance contract on the company's bond. We assume that the stock price stays above a barrier B before default but drops below a lower barrier $A$ after default, thus generating...

This paper investigates whether alternative return distributions such as Hansen's skewed t-distribution combined with similar GARCH specifications can outperform mixed GARCH-jump models. More specifically, this study questions if complicated jumps specification such as Maheu and McCurdy (2004)'s...

Standard economic models based on rational expectations and homogeneity have problems explaining the complex and volatile nature of financial markets. Recently, boundedly rational and heterogeneous agent models have been developed and simulated returns are found to exhibit various stylized...

This paper analyzes the special features of electricity spot prices derived from the physics of this commodity and from the economics of supply and demand in a market pool. Besides mean-reversion, a property they share with other commodities, power prices exhibit the unique feature of spikes in...

This study presents and empirically tests a simple framework that examines the effects of market liquidity (the ease with which stocks are traded) and funding liquidity (the ease with which market participants can obtain funding) on stock market bubbles. Three key findings emerge from this...