The prices of futures contracts on short-term interest rates are commonly used by central banks to gauge market expectations concerning monetary policy decisions. Excess returns - the difference between futures rates and the realized rates - are positive, on average, and statistically...

The paper analyses the relationship between the liquidity shock variance and the size of the reserve requirement. I calibrated the key parameters of the model for the Eurosystem and found that the standard deviation of the shock is roughly 10% of the average bank's current account holding. Using...

The definition of the decline of long term yields in the light of increasing short term yields as a conundrum by Chairman Greenspan in February 2005 has generated a significant amount of research. This paper presents a study of yield curve dynamics over this period using economic surprise data...

This paper estimates yield curve models for the UK, where the underlying determinants have a macroeconomic interpretation. The first factor is an unobserved inflation target, the second factor is annual inflation, and the third factor is a 'Taylor rule residual', which, among other things,...

It has been suggested that interest-rate smoothing may be partly explained by an omitted variable that relates to conditions in financial markets. We propose an alternative interpretation that suggests that it relates to measurement errors in the output gap

The volatility patterns of overnight interest rates differ across industrial countries in ways that existing models, designed to replicate the features of the U.S. federal funds market, cannot explain. This paper presents an equilibrium model of the overnight interbank market that matches these...

In this paper, we study the fundamental relation between the numerous macroeconomic releases and the term structure of interest rates via a dynamic factor model. We use two dynamic factors to extract the systematic information from a wide array of noisy and sparsely observed macroeconomic...

We determine which macroeconomic variables other than inflation and real activity drive the yield curve using a no-arbitrage affine term structure models. We construct a model-based dynamic projection of all the latent factors onto the observable macro factors, which are real activity and...

In this paper, we present a stylized continuous time model integrating the macroeconomy and the bond markets. We use this framework to estimate (real) interest rate policy rules using information contained in both macroeconomic variables (i.e. output and inflation) and in the term structure of...

We use transaction-level data and detailed modeling of the high-frequency behavior of federal funds-Eurodollar yield spreads to provide evidence of strong integration between the federal funds and Eurodollar markets, the two core components of the dollar money market. Our results contrast with...