Mit einem Markov-Switching-Modell können die monatlichen Veränderungen des ifo Geschäftsklimas in Wahrscheinlichkeiten für die beiden konjunkturellen Regime »Expansion« bzw. «Kontraktion« umgesetzt werden. Diese Wahrscheinlichkeiten – abgebildet in der ifo Konjunkturampel – liefern...

This paper considers a sequence of misspecification tests for a flexible nonlinear time series model. The model is a generalization of both the Smooth Transition AutoRegressive (STAR) and the AutoRegressive Artificial Artificial Neural Network (AR-ANN) models. The tests are Lagrange multiplier...

The problem of determining the nature of growth in the short time series (an alternative choice between linear and exponential trend). We propose a simple criterion for selection. The result can be used, including in medicine, in particular, the interpretation of dynamics in the tumor marker

GARCH volatilities depend on the unconditional variance, which is a non-linear function of the parameters. Consequently, they can have larger biases than estimated parameters. Using robust methods to estimate both parameters and volatilities is shown to outperform Maximum Likelihood procedures.

We reconsider the replication problem for contingent claims in a complete market under a general framework. Since there are various limitations in the Black-Scholes pricing formula, we propose a new method to obtain an explicit self-financing trading strategy expression for replications of...

Of the two most widely estimated univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models, the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH) specification can capture asymmetry, which refers to the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, and leverage, which...

Of the two most widely estimated univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models, the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH) specification can capture asymmetry, which refers to the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, and leverage, which...

Of the two most widely estimated univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models, the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH) specification can capture asymmetry, which refers to the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, and leverage, which...