The celebrated Taylor Rule methodology has established that the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee concerning possible changes in short term interest rates reflected in Fed Funds are influenced by deviations from a desired level of inflation and from potential output. The Taylor...

This paper investigates inter-relationships among the price behavior of oil, gold and the euro using time series and neural network methodologies. Traditionally gold is a leading indicator of future inflation. Both the demand and supply of oil as a key global commodity are impacted by...

This paper investigates inter-relationships among the price behavior of oil, gold and the euro using time series and neural network methodologies. Traditionally gold is a leading indicator of future inflation. Both the demand and supply of oil as a key global commodity are impacted by...

This study uses two data mining methodologies: Classification and Regression Trees (C&RT) and Generalized Rule Induction (GRI) to uncover patterns among daily cash closing prices of eight currency markets. Data from 2000 through 2009 is used, with the last year held out to test the robustness of...

Recently Chairman Greenspan (2003 and 2004) has discussed a risk management approach to the implementation of monetary policy. This paper explores the economic environment of the 1990s and the policy dilemmas the Fed faced given the stock boom from the mid to late 1990s to after the bust in...

Economists have long conjectured that movements in stock prices may involve speculative components. This bubble, as it is usually referred to, is defined as the difference between the market value of a security and its fundamental value. Although there are several important theoretical issues...

Numerous studies have estimated U.S. stock market returns measured by various indexes such as the Samp;P 500 Index over certain periods. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first we calculate, under certain scenarios, the final total accumulation of a representative individual who invests a...

This paper considers several important macroeconomic variables such as inflation, Federal funds rates and unemployment along with behavioral variables such as momentum trading to explain excessive U.S. equity returns during the post World War II era. The theoretical hypotheses propose three...

This paper considers several important macroeconomic variables such as inflation, federal funds rates and unemployment along with behavioral variables such as momentum trading to explain excessive U.S. equity returns during the post World War II era. The theoretical hypotheses propose three...