This paper develops a microstructure model which describes the way in which private information is incorporated into financial market prices via a Bayesian learning process used by agents. The paper shows how a latent process which represents information arrival can be inferred from observed...

Many practitioners point out that the speculative profits of institutional traders are eroded by the difficulty in gauging the price impact of their trades. In this paper, we develop a model of strategic trading where speculators face such a dilemma because of incomplete information about...

In a market with informationally connected traders, the dynamics of volume, price informativeness, price-volatility, and price-impacts are severely affected by the number of information linkages every trader experiences with his neighbors. We show that in the presence of information linkages...

Investors who possess the same information and interpret it differently are said to have divergent (as distinct from) homogeneous expectations. Financial economists have widely frowned on the divergent expectations assumption. Nevertheless, this assumption describes reality and is critically...

We study the impact of analyst forecasts on prices to determine whether investors learn about analyst accuracy. Our test market is the crude oil futures market. Prices rise when analysts forecast a decrease (increase) in crude supplies. In the 15 minutes following supply realizations, prices...

This paper develops a market microstructure model with asymmetric information in order to quantify the influence which practical decision rules have on asset prices. The users of practical decision rules have incomplete information at their disposal and trade in a market with both fully informed...

Shareholders follow stocks more closely when they can hold a larger number of shares. A company which expands its investor base without raising capital, redistributes shares from incumbent to new shareholders, and therefore reduces the value of information. Thus, an investor base expansion...

This study shows that the information content of FX transactions depends on the identity of market participants. Using spot FX transactions of a major Australian bank, we find that central banks have the greatest price impact, followed by non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) such as hedge...

Extreme adverse selection arises when private information has unbounded support, and market breakdown occurs when no trade is the only equilibrium outcome. We study extreme adverse selection via the limit behavior of a financial market as the support of private information converges to an...

This paper is concerned with the estimation of coefficients of continuous-time hidden Markov models when the observations are sampled at discrete times, with a view towards financial applications. These estimates are commonly computed from discretely and frequently-sampled returns. However,...