Pinter, Gabor; Theodoridis, Konstantinos; Yates, Tony - Bank of England - 2013
We identify a ‘risk news' shock in a vector autoregression (VAR), modifying Barsky and Sims’s procedure, while … incorporating sign restrictions to simultaneously identify monetary policy, technology and demand shocks. The VAR-identifed risk … news shock is estimated to account for around 2%-12% of business cycle fluctuations depending on which risk proxy we use …