The International Labour Organization (ILO) defines unemployed population as the persons who are not in employment, immediately available to work and who actively look for a job. At INSEE, the mean of the ILO unemployment rate is computed at a quarterly frequency using the Labour Force Survey...

Many finance questions require a full characterization of the distribution of returns. We propose a bivariate model of returns and realized volatility (RV), and explore which features of that time-series model contribute to superior density forecasts over horizons of 1 to 60 days out of sample....

Stock markets employ specialized traders, market-makers, designed to provide liquidity and volume to the market by constantly supplying both supply and demand. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel method for modeling the market as a dynamic system and a reinforcement learning algorithm that...

This paper examines the daily volatility of changes in yield on the 10-year Treasury note utilizing the iterated cumulative sums of squares algorithm (Inclan and Tiao, 1994). The ICSS algorithm can detect regime shifts in the volatility of the interest rate changes. A general model allows for...

National Council of Real Estate Fiduciaries multiple listing service level cash flows and panels of capitalization rates for industrial, office and retail properties over the last two decades are examined in this study. Real NOI 5-year future growth is shown to be negatively related to...