Abstract Understanding how people make decisions from risky choices has attracted increasing attention of researchers in economics, psychology and neuroscience. While economists try to evaluate individual’s risk preference through mathematical modeling, neuroscientists answer the question by...

Measuring and modeling financial volatility is the key to derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management. The recent availability of high-frequency data allows for refined methods in this field. In particular, more precise measures for the daily or lower frequency volatility can be...

This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the linear and nonlinear time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient parametric models, such as AR or GARCH, whose coefficients...

The Nadaraya-Watson nonparametric estimator of regression is known to be highly sensitive to the presence of outliers in data. This sensitivity can be reduced, for example, by using local L-estimates of regression. Whereas the local L-estimation is traditionally done using an empirical...

In this paper we propose the GHADA risk management model that is based on the generalized hyperbolic (GH) distribution and on a nonparametric adaptive methodology. Compared to the normal distribution, the GH distribution possesses semi-heavy tails and represents the financial risk factors more...

Based on daily VDAX data we analyse the factors governing the movements of implied volatilities of options on the German stock index DAX. We derive common factors representing shift and slope of the term structure of ATM implied volatilities. Further we present a risk management tool for option...

Price variations at speculative markets exhibit positive autocorrelation and cross correlation. Due to large parameter spaces necessary for joint modeling of variances and covariances, multivariate parametric volatility models become easily intractable in practice. We propose an adaptive...

The implied volatility of an option as a function of strike price and time to maturity forms a volatility surface. Traders price according to the dynamics of this high dimensional surface. Recent developments that employ semiparametric models approximate the implied volatility surface (IVS) in a...

We propose a semiparametric factor model, which approximates the implied volatility surface (IVS) in a finite dimensional function space. Unlike standard principal component approaches typically used to reduce complexity, our approach is tailored to the degenerated design of IVS data. In...

We propose a semiparametric factor model, which approximates the implied volatility surface (IVS) in a finite dimensional function space. Unlike standard principal component approaches typically used to reduce complexity, our approach is tailored to the degenerated design of IVS data. In...