We develop a new approach to approximating asset prices in the context of continuous-time models. For any pricing model that lacks a closed-form solution, we provide a closed-form approximate solution, which relies on the expansion of the intractable model around an “auxiliary” one. We...

Historically, commodity futures have had excess returns similar to those of equities. But what should we expect in the future? The usual risk factors are unable to explain the time-series variation in excess returns. In addition, our evidence suggests that commodity futures are an inconsistent,...

This paper builds on the landmark contribution of Glosten (1994) by treating the determination of limit order supply schedules as an exercise in asset pricing theory with the possible sizes of incoming market orders as the value-relevant states of nature, yielding an analogue of the Fundamental...

As a consequence of optimal investment choices, firms' assets and growth options change in predictable ways. Using a dynamic model, we show that this imparts predictability to changes in a firm's systematic risk, and its expected return. Simulations show that the model simultaneously reproduces:...

This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model capable of jointly explaining the term structure of interest rates, returns on the aggregate market and the risk and return characteristics of value and growth stocks. Both the term structure of interest rates and returns on value and growth stocks...

We model the demand-pressure effect on prices when options cannot be perfectly hedged. The model shows that demand pressure in one option contract increases its price by an amount proportional to the variance of the unhedgeable part of the option. Similarly, the demand pressure increases the...

We develop and implement a technique for closed-form maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of multifactor affine yield models. We derive closed-form approximations to likelihoods for nine Dai and Singleton (2000) affine models. Simulations show our technique very accurately approximates true (but...

An important purpose of derivatives modelling is to provide practitioners with actionable measures of risk. The Black and Scholes volatility remains a favourite on trading floors in spite of well-known biases. One popular extension is to make volatility a function of time and the underlying...

In derivatives modelling, it has often been necessary to make assumptions about the volatility of the underlying variable over the life of the contract. This can involve specifying an exact trajectory, as in the Black and Scholes (1973), Merton (1973) or Black (1976) models; one that depends on...

The Asset Backed CDS contract was introduced in 2005 as an extension of the standard corporate CDS. It generally trades under the ISDA "pay-as-you-go'' (PAUG) confirmation which handles the unique features of ABS - amortization, principal writedowns and interest shortfalls. The current market...