This book provides a description of the main macroeconomic models used by the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks (Eurosystem). These models are used to help prepare economic projections and scenario analysis for individual countries and the euro area as a whole.

The present paper investigates whether Greek gasoline prices respond symmetrically to changes in international oil prices. The study uses all available observations and applies the TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive) methodology, which is considered to be the most reliable econometric technique...

This paper investigates empirically the long-run linkages between sectoral relative prices and labor productivities implied by the Balassa (1964) ans Samuelson (1964) framework. The role of wage non-homogeneity across sectors is explored by incorporating sectoral wages into the analysis.The...

This paper is an exercise in applied macroeconomic forecasting. We examine the forecasting power of a vector error-correction model (VECM) that is anchored by a long-run equilibrium relationship between Greek national income and productive public expenditure as suggested by the economic theory....