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We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2.2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699833
results of our Global VAR model of the world economy indicate that the economic consequences of El Niño shocks differ across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790556
We employ a set of sign restrictions on the impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, as well as bounds on impact price elasticities of oil supply and oil demand to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011100097
Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699832
Russia has greatly benefited both from exporting more energy commodities in volume terms and from the improvement of its terms of trade due to the rise in oil and other commodity prices in the 2000s. To study the impacts, the counterfactual simulation for the years 2001-2006 and the usual oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005818378
It is commonly understood that macroeconomic shocks influence commodity prices and that one channel for this is the link between interest rates, expected future asset returns and stock-holding. In this paper the link is extended to the petroleum market with the recognition that recorded stocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010573330
conclusion is that world economic activity is higher through most of the simulation period [2014-2035] when U.S. natural gas …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010904280
The price of oil has had a marked increase since 2002. The prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude -the two main benhcmarks of the market- have surpassed their historical maximum reached in 1991 during the first Gulf War, though, in real terms, the price of oil is still below...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005617155
run restrictions in each country/region conditioning on the rest of the world. Bootstrapping is used to compute both the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777728
The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782905