GARCH models have been extensively used in risk modeling under the normal distribution. Although they generate highly significant coefficient estimates, these models are known to have poor forecasting power. It is therefore interesting to develop a different approach of risk modeling to improve...

This paper analyses the evolution through time of stock prices considering an extension of jump diffusion processes that incorporates Shot Noise effects. This extension follows the model recently proposed by Altmann et al (2004). The shot noise process introduces a new situation in which the...

The problem in default probability estimation for low-default portfolios is that there is little relevant historical data information. No amount of data processing can fix this problem. More information is required. Incorporating expert opinion formally is an attractive option

We show that a simple equilibrium model with uncertain growth is able to simultaneously generate patterns in implied volatility and risk aversion that are similar to the ones observed in the data. In addition, the model produces an implied pricing kernel that is increasing for particular levels...

This article deals with the estimation of the parameters of an a-stable distribution with indirect inference, using the skewed-t distribution as an auxiliary model. The latter distribution appears as a good candidate since it has the same number of parameters as the a-stable distribution, with...

We show in a theoretical model that the expected excess return on any asset depends on its covariance not only with the market portfolio, but also with changes in the representative agent's estimate. We test our model using GMM and compare it to the CAPM. The results suggest that adding an...

The integer-valued moving average model is advanced to model the number of transactions in intra-day data of stocks. The conditional mean and variance properties are discussed and model extensions to include, e.g., explanatory variables are offered. Least squares and generalized method of moment...

Accurate modeling of extreme price changes is vital to financial risk management. We examine the small sample properties of adaptive tail index estimators under the class of student-t marginal distribution functions including GARCH and propose a model-based bias-corrected estimation approach....

In this paper, we study the dynamic interdependencies between high-frequency volatility, liquidity demand as well as trading costs in an electronic limit order book market. Using data from the Australian Stock Exchange we model 1-min squared mid-quote returns, average trade sizes, number of...

We use a no-arbitrage essentially affine three-factor model to estimate term premia in US and German ten-year government bond yields. In line with the existing literature, we find that estimated premia have followed a downward trend since the 1980s: from 4.9 per cent in 1981 to 0.7 per cent in...