Isoré, Marlène; Szczerbowicz, Urszula - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations … - 2013
This paper incorporates a small and time-varying “disaster risk” à la Gourio (2012) in a New Keynesian model. A change in the probability of disaster may affect macroeconomic quantities and asset prices. In particular, a higher risk is sufficient to generate a recession without effective...