Despite widespread media interest in bull and bear markets, academic research that seeks to formally define bull markets is almost non-existent. This paper defines bull and bear markets in relation to a simple model of mean return regimes, and implements the definition using two formal turning...

Endowment warrants are long-term call options with an exercise price that is reduced whenever dividends are paid on the options' underlying shares so that over the decade-long life of the option the exercise price could fall to zero if anticipated share dividend growth occurs. This paper derives...

This paper provides a method for testing for regime differences when regimes are long-lasting. Standard testing procedures are generally inappropriate because regime persistence causes a spurious regression problem - a problem that has led to incorrect inference in a broad range of studies...

Whether Republican or Democratic presidents are better for the the stock market has been closely scrutinized for years. Although much of it is discussed only in casual terms, a recent academic study by Santa Clara and Valkanov (2003) documenting that the market does significantly better under...