This paper analyzes the period-to-period changes that occur in an optimizing monetary model with uncertainty and sticky prices. Money is incorporate in its role as a medium of exchange through a time-cost transactions techonolgy. Another important characteristic of the model is that both capital...

Intangible capital is an important factor of production in modern economies that is generally neglected in business cycle analyses. We demonstrate that intangible capital can have a substantial impact on business cycle dynamics, especially if the intangible is complementary with production...

Curiously and in spite of its name, very few business cycle theories actually treat it as a cycle. Mainstream economics, for example, models all macroeconomic fluctuations as a function of exogenous forces. In their view, the economy remains at full employment indefinitely unless impacted by...

Overly optimistic expectations concerning productivity and consequent downward revisions are commonly viewed as a key determinant of U.S. investment during the boom-bust cycle of 1995–2003. This view is formalized and evaluated in a general equilibrium model with news shocks about future...

A gravidade da crise económica actual tem justificado o apelo à instituição de uma nova ordem económica. De facto, parte daquela gravidade pode ser atribuída ao desconhecimento (ou à falta de reconhecimento) das relações que se estabelecem entre variáveis económicas chave, quer ao...

La crise mondiale et celle, plus récente, dans la zone euro ont eu tendance à raccourcir l’horizon prévisionnel et décisionnel de nombreux agents économiques. Dans le même temps, les incertitudes (sur l’emploi, les retraites…) poussent plutôt à la remontée du taux d’épargne des...

I start with income and wealth inequality data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Thomas Piketty, and propose approaches taken from science (for example, behavioral evolution theory,) that might be useful in explaining the data and forecasting future economic events. Using a modified...

We set out a model to compute short-term forecasts of the euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. With this data...