This report considers four short-term, alternative scenarios for the eurozone and analyses their possible implications for global economic trends and the gold market. Overall, the main findings suggest that in the near future, motives other than inflation hedging will be the main drivers of gold...

In March 2000 in Lisbon, EU heads of state and government set the strategic goal to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion. These goals were confirmed at the...

This paper proposes a two-step, market-based approach to debt reduction: · Step 1. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) would offer holders of debt of the countries with an EFSF programme (probably Greece, Ireland and Portugal = GIP) an exchange into EFSF paper at the market price...

This report considers four short-term, alternative scenarios for the eurozone and analyses their possible implications for global economic trends and the gold market. Overall, the main findings suggest that in the near future, motives other than inflation hedging will be the main drivers of gold...

This paper tests whether the volatility in the fundamentals that ought to determine exchange rates is large enough to produce the observed volatility in exchange rates.The results show that monetary and portfolio balance considerations cannot explain the observed variability in the exchange rate...

This paper deals with potential instabilities in the Eurozone stemming from an insufficient interplay between monetary policy and reform effort on the one hand and the emergence of intra-Euro area divergences on the other. As a first step, we assess the effect of EMU on structural reform and...

This paper discusses stabilization policy in the presence of bands for the exchange rate. The bands are modelled in a probabilistic sense: monetary policy has to be such as to keep the probability, that the exchange rate stays within the bands, above a certain threshold. In contrast to other...

The existing literature on dual exchange rate regimes assumes that the separation between the two foreign exchange markets is perfect. In this paper, by contrast, a divergence between the two exchange rates induces a flow of arbitrage activity, the magnitude of which depends on both the costs of...

A simple two-country stochastic model is used to analyze monetary policy interaction in a system of exchange rate bands such as the EMS, in the context of internationally-integrated financial markets. We consider the widely-acknowledged asymmetry of the system, as it pertains to member...

The paper measures the effects of the integration of European financial markets and lower inflation in the EMS on the revenue from seigniorage for the EC member countries with particular focus on the high inflation countries. Assuming that by 1992 all EC members participate fully in the EMS and...