This paper builds upon the model of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) and extends it to triplecrises. It applies a new visualisation approach combining elements of an event study analysis and a fan chart technique. This approach illustrates the deviation of fundamentals in the runup to...

We present a model that illustrates the close relationship between the possibility of a currency crisis and the amount of private-sector debt within a four-stage sequential game framework. In the first stage, the government announces its exchange rate policy, and all agents in the economy...

This paper presents a simple model of currency crises, which is driven by the interplay between the credit constraints of private domestic firms and the existence of nominal price rigidities. The possibility of multiple equilibria, including a ‘currency crisis’ equilibrium with low output...

Over the last three decades, durations of recovery of output from contractionary currency crises have shown much variation both within and across countries. Using a dataset comprising of both developing and industrial countries, this paper examines the importance of economic fundamentals,...

The wave of liberalization of capital movements, which swept Europe in the 1980s and the emerging market countries in the 1990s, has given rise to the two-corner strategy. According to this view only two exchange rate regimes are sustainable: hard pegs and fully flexible rates. Soft pegs in the...

The rise and fall of Argentina´s currency board illustrates the extent to which the advantages of hard pegs have been overstated. The currency board did provide nominal stability and boosted financial intermediation, at the cost of endogenous financial dollarization, but did not foster fiscal...

This paper presents some evidence that long-run modeling of real exchange rates should take into account both monetary and real factors. In particular, we show that long-run movements of the dollar-yen and dollar-mark real exchange rates are well described by a cointegrating relationship which...

Bu çalışmanın amacı İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerli olup olmadığı sorusunun cevabını aramak ve bütçe açıkları ile cari işlem açıkları arasındaki -varsa- ilişkinin yapısını incelemektir. İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin geçerliliğini araştırmak amacıyla...

Bu çalışmada, reel döviz kuruyla ihracat ve ithalat arasındaki ilişkiler, 1990:1–2004:6 dönemi için aylık veriler kullanılarak VAR modeli yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Bulgular Granger nedensellik, varyans ayrımlaştırma ve etki-tepki fonksiyonlarından hareketle...

This paper analyzes the determinants of cross-border asset trade on cross-country data and a Swedish data set. We focus our analysis on the effect of the euro for the determinants of bond trade, equity and banking assets. With the help of a theoretical model, we attempt to disentangle the...