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For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey … models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era of high … frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647457
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
government bonds to derive expected inflation rates and inflation risk premia, in the euro area and in the US. Maximum likelihood … which can be interpreted as two real factors and one inflation factor. These provide important information on expected … inflation and inflation risk premia. The results highlight some striking differences between the euro area and the US. In the US …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009645795
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647230
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647399
-adjusted nominal term structure to compute the constant-maturity inflation compensation. This compensation is compared with the … surveyed inflation expectation in order to obtain a measure of the inflation risk premium in the euro area during the last …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010839289
The market evolution since the end of 2007 has been characterized by an increase of systemic risk and a high number of defaults. Realized recovery rates have been very dispersed and different from standard assumptions, while 60%-100% super-senior tranches on standard indices have started to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008476375
Technical analysis is defined as the tracking and prediction of asset price movements using charts and graphs in combination with various mathematical and statistical methods. More precisely, it is the quantitative criteria used in predicting the relative strength of buying and selling forces...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011156395
inflation in the euro area. As far as real rates are concerned, we find that they are not affected by macroeconomic surprises in … the United States, but they are by surprises in inflation and monetary policy in the euro area. Inflation expectations in … both areas are not systematically influenced by monetary policy surprises. In the United States forward inflation risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099653
Pure econometric approaches to pricing mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) - principal pricing vehicles used by financial practitioners - fail to capture their true risks. This point was powerfully driven home by the global financial crisis. Since prior to the crisis default rates of MBSs were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011039090