The purpose of the System Dynamics method is to study the relationship between structure and behavior in non-linear, dynamic systems. In such systems, the significance of various structural components to the behavior pattern exhibited, changes as the behavior unfolds. Changes in structural...

After entering the European Union (EU) Latvia faced new possibilities in international labor market. In 2004 several member states opened their labor markets to workers from Latvia. The largest amount of labor force went to Ireland, Great Britain and Sweden. In these countries salaries were...

This volume – Predicting Crisis: Five Essays on the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises – is the first of three sets of essays. In this first set the economic and social history of the United States is shown to be a “system of movement,” i.e. a logical and mathematic...

This paper models the impact on economic growth of HIV/AIDS when the epidemic is in a mature phase, in contrast with previous studies focused on periods of expansion, as in African countries. Simulations for Honduras, the epicenter of the epidemic in Central America, show that AIDS is not likely...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

This paper outlines the importance of confidence and sentiment indicators in forecasting short-term economic growth. I used an econometric model similar to the one used by Kitchen and Monaco (2003), and I made forecasts regarding the economic growth of Romania. The model is combining different...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The main issue of this article is to discuss the question of ‘precarity’ in the context of the theory of social quality (see Beck et al, 2001), with which to pave the way for developing further the theoretical foundation of precarity. Societal practice is the main challenge this concept...

Failure or refusal to fully disclose fees, expenses, revenue sharing, and other hidden costs is causing hundreds of thousands of 401(k) and similar plans to operate outside the realm of fiduciary prudence, unknowingly engage in prohibited transactions, and unnecessarily erode the future benefits...

Based on the ontological and epistemological problems and solutions and on the analysis of the philosophical grounds of three main schools of economics, exposed in the previous papers, a short overview of the philosophy of the multilevel reality is done. It is shown that the hierarchy of the...