Financial economists have long debated whether monetary policy is neutral. This paper addresses this question by examining how stock return data respond to monetary policy shocks. Monetary policy is measured by innovations in the federal funds rate and nonborrowed reserves, by narrative...

Financial derivatives have harmed or destroyed numerous financial firms, nonfinancial firms, and municipalities in 1994 and 1995. This paper discusses the dangers of derivatives and also their benefits. It then considers policies that will maintain the benefits while containing the risks. These...

We use a multi-factor asset pricing model to investigate whether fluctuations in industry stock returns are due to industry stock returns are due to industry-specific shocks or to monetary and other macroeconomic factors. We find that common factors explain a substantial portion of the variation...

Bond prices plummeted in early 1994. These losses occurred while the Fed was raising interest rates. John Y. Campbell argues that the Fed could have triggered the losses either by communicating information about incipient inflation or by increasing uncertainty about monetary policy and thus...

China's surplus in processing trade remains large. Processed exports are final goods produced using parts and components that are imported duty free. Since much of the value added of these exports comes from East Asia, exchange rates throughout the region should affect their foreign currency...

Germany's nominal exchange rate has remained weaker because it is linked to weaker eurozone economies. Germany's real exchange rate also depreciated vis-à-vis eurozone countries after 2000 because German firms and workers controlled unit labor costs. This paper investigates how exchange rate...

This paper investigates import demand in East Asia. Estimating exchange rate elasticities for countries in the region is difficult because many imports are used to produce goods for re-export. An exchange rate appreciation that reduces East Asian exports will also reduce the demand for imported...

This paper traces the effects of the “East Asian Miracle,†the 1997–1998 Asian Crisis, the recovery, and the 2008–2009 global financial crisis on ASEAN countries. It also considers how ASEAN countries can sustain growth by leveraging production networks to...

This paper considers how exchange rates affect East Asian trade. The evidence indicates that exports produced within regional production networks depend on exchange rates throughout the region while labor-intensive exports depend on exchange rates in the exporting country. These results make...

This paper investigates import demand in East Asia. Estimating exchange rate elasticities for countries in the region is difficult because many imports are used to produce goods for re-export. An exchange rate appreciation that reduces East Asian exports will also reduce the demand for imported...