This paper proposes the evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) under a new learning mechanism where VAR learning dynamics is combined with the idea of testing the validity of the forward-looking model of inflation dynamics. The key assumption is that agents’ perceived law of...

In this paper we propose simulation-based techniques to investigate the finite sample performance of likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the nonlinear restrictions that arise when a class of forward-looking (FL) models, typically used in monetary policy analysis, is evaluated with Vector...

The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the Phillips curve in the US during the period 1951-2001 using some time-varying parameters and the Kalman filter. Time-varying estimates for the sensitivity of inflation to the unemployment rate are provided in addition to time-varying...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

A well known result is that the Gaussian log-likelihood can be expressed as the sum over different frequency components. This implies that the likelihood ratio statistic has a similar linear decomposition. We exploit these observations to devise diagnostic methods that are useful for...

In this paper, we examine causal relationships among inflation rate, output growth rate, inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty for ten Central and Eastern European transition countries. For this purpose, we estimate a bivariate GARCH model that includes output growth and inflation rates...

UK aggregate demand is modelled over the period 1965q1-1998q2 within a long-run structural VAR of the following variables: domestic and foreign output, domestic and foreign short-term interest rate, domestic long-term interest rate, the real effective exchange rate and real money balances. The...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

This paper examines how much structural change there was in the U.S. economy in the last half of the 1990s. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that there was only one major structural change, namely the huge increase in stock prices relative to earnings. All other large changes can...

This work has objetive to discuss a new approach for the model IS-LM proposal by Romer (2000), which curved LM is substituted by a curved MP (monetary policy of the Central Bank). The work was motivated by the need of a more coherent model with the current economic reality for forecast and...