We investigate to what extent estimated relationships of the IMF’s monetary model and their policy implications are sample dependent. This model constitutes the core of the IMF’s financial programming models for developing and emerging economies. We observe that estimates of the model’s...

An accurate liquidity forecast is necessary for an effective implementation of monetary policy. Its quality is determined by the quality of its components: the projected demand for bank reserves and of the, so called, autonomous monetary factors, such as the demand for bills and coins of the...

European Monetary Union will come into existence in 1999. This raises questions related to the monetary policy targets that will be adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB). For both likely candidates, targeting a money aggregate or an inflation target, the existence of a stable money demand...

This paper implements an affine term structure model that accommodates "unspanned" macro risks for the Euro area, i.e. distinct from yield-curve risks. I use an averaging-estimator approach to obtain a better estimation of the historical dynamics of the pricing factors, thus providing more...

This paper implements an affine term structure model that accommodates "unspanned" macro risks for the Euro area, i.e. distinct from yield-curve risks. I use a Near-Cointegrated VAR-like approach to obtain a better estimation of the historical dynamics of the pricing factors, thus providing more...

Este es material de curso para un curso introductorio a la Probabilidad y la Estadistica en Ingenieria y Administracion. Es parte de algunas notas de clases de mis cursos en Español sobre esos temas. La humanidad ha perseguido el conocimiento del futuro. Recuerdese el sybil en el oraculo de...