In this paper we investigate the profitability of non-linear trading rules based on nearest neighbor predictors. Applying this investment strategy to the New York Stock Exchange, our results suggest that, taking into account transaction costs, the non-linear trading rule is superior to a...

In this paper we assess whether some simple forms of technical analysis can predict stock price movements in the Madrid Stock Exchange. To that end, we use daily data for General Index of the Madrid Stock Exchange, covering the thirty-one-year period from January 1966-October 1997. Our results...

In this paper we assess the economic significance of the nonlinear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1st January 1978-31st December 1994 period, we consider nearest-neighbour nonlinear predictors, transforming their...

In this paper we assess the economic significance of the nonlinear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1st January 1978-31st December 1994 period, we consider nearest-neighbor nonlinear predictors, transforming their...

A Probit model to forecast the probability of bear markets in the Spanish IBEX 35 is presented, being the explanatory factors selected from a wide set of economic variables like the yield curve of Spain, US and Europe, several macro variables, and numerous leading indicators. A data-guided...

In this paper we assess the economic significance of the nonlinear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1st January 1978-31st December 1994 period, we consider nearest-neighbour nonlinear predictors, transforming their...

The article examines whether commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of equity returns. Alongside a long-only equally-weighted portfolio of commodity futures, we employ as an alternative commodity risk factor a term structure portfolio that captures the propensity of commodity futures...

This paper applies recent cointegration techniques to analyse whether the forward market for the peseta/US dollar is efficient in both the one-month and the three-month segments of the market. Under the assumption of rationality, the premiums are small and they suggest a possible linear...

This study attempts to identify and trace inter-linkages between sovereign and banking risk in the euro area. To this end, we use an indicator of banking risk in each country based on the Contingent Claim Analysis literature, and 10-year government yield spreads over Germany as a measure of...

This paper measures the connectedness in EMU sovereign market volatility between April 1999 and January 2014, in order to monitor stress transmission and to identify episodes of intensive spillovers from one country to the others. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to...