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Euro Area: Macroeconomic Policies Under Constraints

Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès; Carton, Benjamin - In: La Lettre du CEPII (2007) 266

One almost no longer speaks about them. Neither in international forums, where sound economic policies essentially mean structural reforms, enhanced competition, trade integration and financial supervision; nor in the public debate, except to assign them objectives which are mainly out of their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972588

Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey

Leigh, Daniel - 2006

Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic indicators for inflation and real output growth in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782443

The Portuguese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis

Reis, Ricardo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

Between 2000 and 2012, the Portuguese economy grew less than the United States during the Great Depression and less than Japan during its lost decade. This paper asks why this happened, with a particular focus on the slump between 2000 and 2007. It describes the main facts of Portugal's recent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084366

Inflation targeting in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines : the impact on business cycle synchronization between each country and the world

Inoue, Takeshi; Toyoshima, Yuki; Hamori, Shigeyuki - Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade … - 2012

This paper empirically analyzes whether and to what extent the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines has affected their business cycle synchronization with the rest of the world. By employing the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010540680

Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area - an empirical assessment

Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014

Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886924

Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

Mönch, Emanuel; Uhlig, Harald - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

This Paper is an exercise in dating the euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. We construct several monthly European real GDP series, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. Using this method we identify four business cycles. Studying further indicators of business activity, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067594

Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

Mönch, Emanuel; Uhlig, Harald - Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko, … - 2003

This paper is an exercise in dating the Euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. Using a quite flexible interpolation routine, we construct several monthly series of Euro area real GDP, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. To account for the asymmetry in growth regimes and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005677891

The Eurozone: An Inconvenient Truth

Croitoru, Lucian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2013) 2, pp. 193-210

In this study, we show that the main problem facing the Eurozone economy is the relatively low competitiveness of the …03id332.html). The politicians’ initial assumption that joining the Eurozone would lead to the convergence of … productivity trends failed to materialize. We argue that, while tightening fiscal discipline within the Eurozone is a must, it does …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678154

Portfolio Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Shocks : Applications to Stress Testing Under Data-Restricted Environments

Segoviano Basurto, Miguel - 2007

Portfolio credit risk measurement is greatly affected by data constraints, especially when focusing on loans given to unlisted firms. Standard methodologies adopt convenient, but not necessarily properly specified parametric distributions or simply ignore the effects of macroeconomic shocks on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777951

Assessing Portfolio Credit Risk Changes in a Sample of EU Large and Complex Banking Groups in Reaction to Macroeconomic Shocks

Castren, Olli - 2009

In terms of regulatory and economic capital, credit risk is the most significant risk faced by banks. We implement a credit risk model - based on publicly available information - with the aim of developing a tool to monitor credit risk in a sample of large and complex banking groups (LCBGs) in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766583

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