In this paper we update our 2006 white paper ldquo;A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocationrdquo; with new data from the 2008-2012 period. How well did the purpose of the original paper ndash; to present a simple quantitative method that improves the risk-adjusted returns across...

The aim of this paper is to develop a hedging methodology for making a portfolio of options delta, vega and gamma neutral by taking positions in other available options, and simultaneously minimizing the net premium to be paid for the hedging. A quadratic programming solution for the problem is...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

Modern portfolio theory produces optimal portfolios from estimates of expected returns and a covariance matrix. Such optimal portfolios are efficient portfolios, that is they provide the maximum level of expected return for a given level of risk. We present a method for portfolio selection based...

A new relationship is derived for net present value (NPV) per dollar invested that is composed entirely of interest rates. The rates are mark-ups to the cost of capital, each mark-up being an internal rate of return (IRR) embedded in the complex plane. The result has been shown before, but only...

An information transaction entails the purchase of information. Formally, it consists of an information structure together with a price. We develop an index of the appeal of information transactions, which is derived as a dual to the agent’s preferences for information. The index of...

This paper explores how a put option changes the probability distribution of portfolio value. The paper extends the model introduced in Bell (2014) by allowing both the quantity and strike price to vary. I use the 5% quantile from the portfolio distribution to measure riskiness and compare...

The random-walk hypothesis of asset prices suggests that prices traded in a market cannot be predicted based on historical information. Employing unsecuritized UK commercial property returns, we analyze this hypothesis. Our results uncover multiple changes in persistence in both aggregate and...

Although better information about the dynamics of the yields on financial assets is decisive for both borrowers and lenders alike, it is not uncommon, in the literature, for researchers to employ standard unit-root tests to determine the extent of the persistence, and based on such results,...

Recent empirical studies have demonstrated long-memory in the signs of orders to buy or sell in financial markets. We show how this can be caused by delays in market clearing. Under the common practice of order splitting, large orders are broken up into pieces and executed incrementally. If the...