This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number...

The problem of pricing derivative financial products is central to the theory of capital markets. An option is a financial contract conveying its owner the right of buying or selling a financial asset (underlying asset) at a preset strike price K, at a fixed expiration date T (maturity). Unlike...

This essay analyzes current fiscal policy in the United States within an historical context. The objective is to clarify why recent developments in the United States are troubling, but also to understand why the United States, in contrast to other countries such as Italy, has so far avoided the...

This paper presents a framework for evaluating the level and composition of public expenditures, illustrated by sectoral and country examples.

Euro area entry calls for more fiscal flexibility to absorb cyclical shocks that cannot be dealt with by the common monetary policy. At the same time fiscal consolidation must not be put at risk, especially given rising ageing related costs. The current fiscal framework could be improved by...

We construct yearly fiscal series for Sweden between 1719 and 2003 including expenditures, revenues, deficits and debt. We present measures for the fiscal branch of the central government as well as for the consolidated fiscal and monetary branch, which includes seigniorage. We evaluate the...

This paper focuses on some of the practical issues involved in developing coluntary domestic markets for government debt.

The central objective of this paper is to empirically examine the issue of fiscal sustainability in developing Asia. To do so, we first diagnose the region’s public finances by analyzing the evolution of key fiscal indicators over time and across subregions. We then estimate fiscal policy...

This paper presents a brief overview of the extant fiscal situation in South Asian countries. In particular, I emphasize low tax/GDP ratios and inelastic expenditure/GDP ratios which then lead to structurally entrenched fiscal deficits. The paper also reports on the sustainability of fiscal and...

Global oil prices have subsided relative to the peak reached in mid-2008, but compared to historical levels they remain elevated and volatile as economic uncertainties continue to unfold. The likelihood of these prices rising again soon cannot be ruled out. High oil prices can adversely affect...