Building Risk-Neutral Densities (RND) from options data can provide market-implied expectations about the future behavior of a financial variable. This paper uses the Liu et all (2007) approach to estimate the option-implied risk-neutral densities from the Brazilian Real/US Dollar exchange rate...

We propose and test a model that combines of performance-based arbitrage, short-sale constraints and costly arbitrage. In the model, after an unexpected good earning surprise, short covering causes a price overshooting for highly shorted stocks. However, this price reaction is limited by...

This paper empirically evaluates Risk-Neutral Densities (RND) and Real-World Densities (RWD) as predictors of future outcomes of emerging markets currencies. The dataset consists of volatility surfaces from 11 emerging market currencies, with approximately six years of daily data, using options...