We propose a new structural form methodology for understanding the fluctuations and predictability of volatilities and covariances of asset returns. In our model, a representative agent learns about the joint movements in inflation and real earnings through business cycles. We extract investors'...

In this study we examine a causal relationship between series of returns and traded volumes in high-frequency data. Our analysis is based on the methodology of Ghysels, Gourieroux and Jasiak (2000), who develop a qualitative framework in which dynamics of financial series are restricted to...

Capitalisation weighting has added 8,000 basis points of incremental returns to the FTSE 100 Index compared to an equally weighted portfolio of the same constituents. Industry factors explained 66% of the incremental returns, while size and style factors explained 2%. The capitalisation weighted...

This paper provides new evidence on the empirical success of structural models in explaining corporate credit risk changes. A parsimonious set of common factors and firm-level fundamentals, inspired by structural models, explains more than 54% (67%) of the variation in credit spread changes for...

This paper offers a continuous time, general equilibrium model where a risky asset is traded among risk-averse overconfident investors. Two kinds of overconfidence are introduced: investors exhibit relative overconfidence if each investor believes her model is better than others' and aggregate...

I test whether the persistence of the momentum and reversal effects is the result of idiosyncratic risk limiting arbitrage. Idiosyncratic deters arbitrage, regardless of the arbitrageur's level of diversification. Reversal is prevalent only in high idiosyncratic risk stocks, suggesting that...

All US stock market sectors and industries perform better during winter than during summer in our sample from 1926-2005. In more than two-third of all sectors and industries this difference in summer and winter returns, known as the Halloween effect, is statistically significant and in half of...

This paper confronts the main foundations of the neoclassical theory of the capital market and asset pricing with allegations of behavioral finance. Cornerstones of the traditional theory are discussed in the first section. It is followed by a brief presentation of the behavioral approach....