GARCH models have been extensively used in risk modeling under the normal distribution. Although they generate highly significant coefficient estimates, these models are known to have poor forecasting power. It is therefore interesting to develop a different approach of risk modeling to improve...

In risk management it is desirable to grasp the essential statistical features of a time series representing a risk factor. This tutorial aims to introduce a number of different stochastic processes that can help in grasping the essential features of risk factors describing different asset...

To verify whether an empirical distribution has a specific theoretical distribution, several tests have been used, for example: Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Kuiper. These tests try to analyze if all parts of the empirical distribution has a specific theoretical shape. But, in a Risk Management...

A common statistical problem in finance is measuring the goodness-of-fit of a given distribution to real world data. This can be done using distances to measure how close an empirical distribution is from a theoretical distribution. The tails of the distribution should receive special importance...

We place the asset value credit portfolio model in the larger context of generalized correlation models where the normal distribution assumption of asset returns is replaced by an abstract elliptical distribution. Based on closed-form solutions for homogenous portfolios, we show in particular...

This paper considers the question of the most appropriate severity distribution estimator for Loss Distribution Analysis (LDA) on operational risk data. We compare the performance of four severity distribution estimators, three well known and one relatively new and assess their suitability for...

Modeling the unconditional distribution of returns on exchange rate and measuring its tails area are issues in the finance literature that have been studied extensively by parametric and non-parametric estimation procedures. However, a conflict of robustness is derived from them because the time...

Genest, C., Ghoudi, K., Rivest, L.P. (1995) proposed a two-stage semi-parametric estimation procedure for a broad class of copulas satisfying minimal regularity conditions. A three-stage semi-parametric estimation method based on Kendall's tau has been recently proposed in the financial...

There is extensive empirical evidence that historical distributions of daily changes for stock prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, commodity prices and other underlyings have high peaks, heavy tails and non-zero skewness contrary to the normal distribution. These risk factors exhibit...

This paper documents nonlinear cross-sectional dependence in the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields and points out risk management implications. The analysis is based on a Kalman filter estimation of a two-factor affine model which specifies the yield curve dynamics. We then apply a broad...