AbstractThis paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it to those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an independent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that both nominal GDP projections are upward biased for...

The debate on localization and urbanization economies usually neglects interdependencies between the two types of economies. This paper addresses this problem by employing an interaction model using German data covering four different sectors for the years 1998 to 2008. We find that localization...

In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employmentexpectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data coverthe period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2012. With in-sampleanalyses and pseudo out-of-sample exercises, we find that for most of the...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral subcomponents at the regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lagmodel we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony) with more than 300 indicators from different...

In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...

Die Konjunktur in Ostdeutschland (mit Berlin) und Sachsen hat zu Jahresbeginn kräftig Fahrt aufgenommen. Und das Tempo dürfte sich im Prognosezeitraum erhöhen. Mit 1,8% in 2014 und 2,0% im kommenden Jahr wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt Ostdeutschlands voraussichtlich kräftig steigen. Im...

In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a large data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...

Solid budgets serve as important quality signals for the electorate. Politicians mighttherefore face an incentive to influence tax revenue forecasts, which are widely regardedas a key element for budget setups. Looking at the time period from 1996 to 2012, inthis study we systematically analyze...

We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each...