Marketizing the up-to-date forecasting is a component of its general transformation process. It reflects the fluctuating relation between forecasting and market mechanism. In this study it is considered an interaction between making estimates and the market logic. The following aspects are...

We study the macroeconomic effects of systemic bank runs in a neoclassical model with a microfounded banking system. In every period, the banks provide insurance against some idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, but the possibility of sunspot-driven bank runs distorts the equilibrium allocation. In a...

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, and after decades of relative neglect, the importance of the financial system and its episodic crises as drivers of macroeconomic outcomes has attracted fresh scrutiny from academics, policy makers, and practitioners. Theoretical advances are following a...

In Reinhart and Rogoff's economic history <em>This Time is Different</em>, the authors provide a panoramic view of crises from the Middle Ages to the modern era. Published just as the current global financial storm arrived, the book quickly showed how history could provide not just useful perspective but...

We propose a simple network–based methodology for ranking systemically important financial institutions. We view the risks of firms –including both the financial sector and the real economy– as a network with nodes representing the volatility shocks. The metric for the connections of the...

The Indian banking system was initially thought to be insulated from the global financial crisis owing to heavy public ownership and cautious management. It was thus a surprise when some banks experienced a deposit flight, as depositors shifted their money toward government-owned banks and...

The Great Recession was an enormous surprise to mainstream economists, while not as much to non-mainstream economists, due to differences in views of the financial economy and its interaction with the real economy. While policy makers continue to follow mainstream economic theory, with the...

This paper investigates the forecasting performance for CDS spreads of both linear and non-linear models by analysing the iTraxx Europe index during the financial crisis period which began in mid-2007. The statistical and economic significance of the models’ forecasts are evaluated by...

The introduction of the euro was one of the most important events in the process of European integration, especially in the financial sector. However, next to its many advantages, the joint currency and single monetary policy increased the probability of property bubbles in the EU low income...

We propose a simple network–based methodology for ranking systemically important financial institutions. We view the risks of firms –including both the financial sector and the real economy– as a network with nodes representing the volatility shocks. The metric for the connections of the...