In this paper we examine macroeconomic, external and financial vulnerabilities of 22 Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies. Our assessment is based on a nonparametric signaling or threshold approach, which involves monitoring selected indicators that show unusual behavior...

In this paper we analyze the impact of three U.S. structural shocks on, and its transmission 0to, the world economy. For that purpose we use a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model coupled with a prior specification that explicitly treats uncertainty regarding...

This paper puts forward a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model (B-GVAR) that accommodates international linkages across countries in a system of vector autoregressions. We compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast...

We analyze how modeling international dependencies improves forecasts for the global economy based on a Bayesian GVAR with SSVS prior and stochastic volatility. To analyze the source of performance gains, we decompose the predictive joint density into its marginals and a copula term capturing...

This paper puts forward a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model (B-GVAR) that accommodates international linkages across countries in a system of vec- tor autoregressions. We compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast...

We analyze how modeling international dependencies improves forecasts for the global economy based on a Bayesian GVAR with SSVS prior and stochastic volatility. To analyze the source of performance gains, we decompose the predictive joint density into its marginals and a copula term capturing...

The U.S. economic recovery lost steam in the first half of 2012. Whereas positive signals have been coming from the real estate sector in recent months, the uptrend in the labor market has not gained a stable foothold yet. Up to now, domestic demand has been the main engine of economic growth....

The U.S. economic recovery lost steam in the first half of 2012. Whereas positive signals have been coming from the real estate sector in recent months, the uptrend in the labor market has not gained a stable foothold yet. Up to now, domestic demand has been the main engine of economic growth....

C<sc>respo</sc> C<sc>uaresma</sc> J., D<sc>oppelhofer</sc> G. and F<sc>eldkircher</sc> M. The determinants of economic growth in European regions, <italic>Regional Studies</italic>. This paper uses Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to find robust determinants of economic growth between 1995 and 2005 in a new data set of 255 European regions. It finds...