Akerlof (2012, 2013) has argued individuals often do not behave according to rational expectations. He shows how buyers in a complete lemon’s market are worse off if they behave irrationally---like loons. We examine several different lemon’s market situations (including when workers may...

More able individuals may over-investment in education when education signals ability. If education directly increases productivity, increasing education cost for the less able may increase welfare by reducing over-investment by the more able, but will not do so if such cost is already either...

The existing superstar model (Rosen 1981) does not require imperfect substitutes and explains the convexity of total earnings with respect to talent due to higher output for those with the most talent. We develop a model that explains why per unit earnings (wages or prices) would increase at an...

Oyer (2007, 2008) considered the turnover of economics professors early in their careers. He found professors are more likely to move down from higher ranked schools than up from lower ranked schools. An asymmetric information model suggests this phenomenon is explained by imperfect screening at...

Maybe. Lemon’s and signaling models generally deal with different welfare problems, the former with withdrawal of high quality sellers, and the latter with socially wasteful signals. However, with asymmetric information, high productivity workers may not (absent signaling) be employed where...

This article explores the dilemma of choosing talent using NBA data from 1987 to 2003. We find there is much uncertainty in selecting talent. If superstars are found, they are usually identified early. However, more false positives exist than correct decisions with high draft picks. Our results...

Following Rosen [1981], superstar effects (earnings convex in quality and a few firms reaping a large share of market earnings) occur with imperfect substitution between sellers, low (and possibly declining) marginal cost of output, and marginal cost falling as quality increases. However,...