A survey of the empirical literature on early warning indicators of banking crises is presented. Descriptive analyses have been published for decades, but cross-national panel data analyses have only been performed since the late 1990s. More recently, the severity of the subprime-Lehman crisis...

This paper presents a factor-based forecasting model for the financial market vulnerability in the U.S. We estimate latent common factors via the method of the principal components from 170 monthly frequency macroeconomic data to out-of-sample forecast the Cleveland Financial Stress Index. Our...

This research analyzes the relation between investor risk appetite and stock market crises in ISE during the 08.07.1994-04.10.2011 period by utilizing the methodology of Kumar and Persaud (2002). Stock market crises are determined by the CMAX method which identifies the stress days in ISE. The...

Few, if any, of the macro stress tests undertaken before the current crisis uncovered significant vulnerabilities. This article examines the reasons for the poor performance by comparing the outcomes of simple stress tests with actual events for a large sample of historical banking crises. The...

From 2007 to 2010, more than 200 community banks in the United States failed. Many of these failed community banking organizations (CBOs) held less than $1 billion in total assets. As economic conditions worsen, banking organizations are expected to preserve capital to withstand unexpected...

Following the debate on the role of credit risk transfer (CRT) in exacerbating the 2007–2009 crisis, this paper investigates the usage and effects of loan sales, securitization, and credit derivatives in U.S. commercial banks over the last decade, with special emphasis on the financial crisis....

The 2007 financial crisis led to a steep decline in the supply of capital to organizations around the world. As liquidity dried up, countries such as Ireland with fragile and overextended credit environments, overpriced asset markets, and accommodative regulatory systems were vulnerable to the...

The United States economy has suffered over the past four years from crises in mortgage foreclosures and in financial markets, as well as a long recession that some have referred to as the Great Recession. The links between these events, or more broadly the causes, extent and effects of these...

This paper examines whether the composition of a country’s external liabilities and assets has an incidence on its risk of suffering financial turmoil. Particular emphasis is put on the role of international financial integration, using newly-constructed measures of contagion shocks. These new...

This paper discusses several key issues regarding the current Great Crisis, which has extended over two periods. The first period covered the 2007-09 subprime crisis in the US, while the second took the form of a twin sovereign debt and banking crisis in Europe after 2010, and persists until...