We find that the composite leading index (CLI) is useful forforecasting GNP, both in sample and in an out-of-sample real-time exercise. We propose a nonlinear specification in which cyclical shifts of the CLI precede those in GNP. However, we find that better forecasts are provided by a simple...

Empirical support for the conventional notion that short-term investment is hot money and direct investment is not: short-term investment appears to respond more dramatically to disturbances in other capital flows and in other countries than does direct investment.Chuhan, Perez-Quiros, and...

This paper presents evidence that the existence of deposit and lending facilities combined with an averaging provision for the reserve requirement are powerful tools to stabilize the overnight rate. We reach this conclusion by comparing the behavior of this rate in Germany before and after the...

The purpose of this paper is to study the determinants of equilibrium in the market for daily funds. We use the EONIA panel database which includes daily information on the lending rates applied by contributing commercial banks. The data clearly show an increase in both the time series...

This paper analyzes the role of standing facilities in the determination of the demand for reserves in the overnight money market. The paper shows how central banks could use the position of the main refinancing rate with respect to the deposit and lending rates as a policy tool to control the...

This paper investigates the determinants of variations in the yield spreads between Japanese yen interest rate swaps and Japan government bonds for a period from 1997 to 2005. A smooth transition vector autoregressive (STVAR) model and generalized impulse response functions are used to analyze...

One of the most extended empirical stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States is the positive autocorrelation of output growth. This paper shows that the positive autocorrelation can be better captured by shifts between business cycle states rather than by the standard view of...

We set out a model to compute short-term forecasts of the euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. With this data...