Este documento resume 1.502 respuestas a una encuesta por e-mail realizada a directivos de empresas, a analistas y a profesores de universidad. Los resultados más relevantes de la encuesta son: 1) gran dispersión de las repuestas (los profesores utilizan primas entre 3 y 8%, los analistas...

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro...

This paper tries to identify the monetary policy shocks in Turkey during the explicit inflation targeting period starting from 2006 using a structural VAR approach. We model Turkey as a small open economy where domestic variables are affected by external factors like commodity prices and global...

Central bank governor changes in emerging markets may convey important signals about future monetary policy. Based on a new daily data set, this paper examines the reactions of foreign exchange markets, domestic stock market indices and sovereign bond spreads to central bank governor changes....

Basel III classifies government debt as risk free while actual interest rates in the European Union (EU) show large differences not only because of liquidity but mainly because of the risk of default, as also reflected in credit default swaps. Curiously such debt defaults may not happen so that...

The key policy challenge for Turkey in the years ahead will be to enhance and consolidate the advances made since the nation’s 2000-01 economic crisis. Higher growth could reduce unemployment and raise living standards toward European Union levels. This paper reviews Turkey’s...

The literature on the yield curve deals with the capacity to predict the future inflation and the future real growth from the term structure of the interest rates. The aim of the paper is to verify this predictive power of the yield curve for the European Union at 16 countries in the 1995-2008...