Recoveries from recessions associated with a financial crisis tend to be sluggish. In this paper, we present evidence that stressed credit conditions are an important factor constraining the pace of recovery. In particular, using industry-level data, we find that industries relying more on...

We present evidence that shows that large increases in credit and residential investment shares, along with deteriorating current account balances, provide useful leading indicators of house price busts. These variables also explain cross-sectional patterns in the build-up to the 2007 crisis....

Recently, several emerging market countries in East Asia and Latin America have initiated intra-regional reserve pooling mechanisms. This is puzzling from a traditional risk-diversification perspective, because country-level shocks are more correlated within rather than across regions. This...

We provide cross-country evidence on the relative importance of cyclical and structural factors in explaining unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by...

This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at...

Recently, some emerging market countries have initiated intra-regional reserve pooling mechanisms. This is puzzling from a traditional risk-diversification perspective, because country-level shocks are more correlated within rather than across regions. This paper provides a novel rationale for...

depending on relative inflation rates. Of this gain, the benefits accruing to seignorage are on the order of 0.5% to 0.7%. The rest of the world is not indifferent as to which currency circulates as the dominant international currency. Conditional on their currency not being used...

The 2007 subprime crisis in the United States has triggered a succession of financial crises around the globe, reigniting interest in the contagion phenomenon. Not all crises, however, are contagious. This paper models a new channel of contagion where the degree of anticipation of crises,...

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new...