Business climate indicators are used to receive early signals for turning points in the general business cycle. Therefore methods for the detection of turning points in time series are required. Estimations of slopes of a smooth component in the data can be calculated with local polynomial...

Einmal pro Quartal befragt das ifo Institut im Rahmen seiner laufenden Konjunkturumfragen die Unternehmen im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe, ob eine Produktionsbehinderung besteht und wenn ja, ob sich die Firmen eher vorgegebenen Angebots- oder Nachfragebeschränkungen gegenübersehen. Der vorliegende...

After a turbulent summer, marked by a weak second and a likely stronger third quarter, the German economy should return to an average pace of growth and end up with a growth rate of 0.9 percent in 2019. Despite the more subdued pace, capacity utilization remains high; employment growth is...

The slowdown in the global economy and the uncertainties caused by Brexit have affected the export-oriented German economy, which is expected to grow by only 0.5 percent this year. However, the German economy has not slid into a crisis due to marked fiscal policy stimuli and favorable...

The spread of the coronavirus worldwide is exerting considerable pressure on the economy. Compounded by the lack of quality data, model uncertainty, and uncertainty over government responses, economic forecasts are subject to even greater uncertainty than usual. It is difficult to predict how...

The German economy remains weak as of the fourth quarter of 2019. However, although industrial production is continuing its downward trend, there are signs of a slow recovery. The manufacturing sector is likely to expand production gradually beginning in 2020; therefore, it is less likely the...

The upswing of the German economy continues and since the beginning of 2017, even at a somewhat faster pace. Sharp gains in employment are still driving consumption. And companies are investing significantly more in machines and facilities. Many global risks that previously limited the...

The German economy will grow by 2.4 percent this year, especially due to strong foreign demand. Brisk investment activity continues in this economic climate; stimulus from foreign trade, however, is weakening somewhat. Despite strong consumer demand in the coming quarters, employment and economic...

The German economy will keep on growing amid risks although growth will slow down somewhat. GDP will continue to grow noticeably at 1.8 percent this year, 1.7 percent next year, and 1.8 percent in 2020. Private household incomes in particular—and thus consumption as well—are boosting growth,...