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How far can we forecast? : statistical tests of the predictive content

Breitung, Jörg; Knüppel, Malte - 2018

Forecasts are useless whenever the forecast error variance fails to be smaller than the unconditional variance of the target variable. This paper develops tests for the null hypothesis that forecasts become uninformative beyond some limiting forecast horizon h. Following Diebold and Mariano (DM,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011826055

Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models

Breitung, Jörg; Eickmeier, Sandra - 2009

From time to time, economies undergo far-reaching structural changes. In this paper we investigate the consequences of structural breaks in the factor loadings for the specification and estimation of factor models based on principal components and suggest test procedures for structural breaks....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003815484

Simple regression based tests for spatial dependence

Born, Benjamin; Breitung, Jörg - 2009

We propose two simple diagnostic tests for spatial error autocorrelation and spatial lag dependence. The idea is to reformulate the testing problem such that the test statistics are asymptotically equivalent to the familiar LM test statistics. Specifically, our version of the test is based on a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003906405

Backward CUSUM for testing and monitoring structural change

Otto, Sven; Breitung, Jörg - 2020

It is well known that the conventional CUSUM test suffers from low power and large detection delay. We therefore propose two alternative detector statistics. The backward CUSUM detector sequentially cumulates the recursive residuals in reverse chronological order, whereas the stacked backward...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421897

A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) and monetary policy transmission : panel evidence from German firms

Breitung, Jörg; Chirinko, Robert S.; Kalckreuth, Ulf von - 2003

investment spending as a VAR. Based on a panel of financial statement data for 6,408 German firms (44,345 datapoints … substantive conclusions, this paper demonstrate that the panel VAR approach is useful for modeling firm dynamics and real … Ergebnissen zeigt das Papier, dass der Panel VAR-Ansatz für die Modellierung der unternehmerischen Dynamik, der Interaktion von …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432001

Some nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration

Breitung, Jörg - 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001390729

Prognoseeigenschaften alternativer Indikatoren für die Konjunkturentwicklung in Deutschland

Breitung, Jörg; Jagodzinski, Doris - 2002

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001684912

Rank tests for nonlinear cointegration

Breitung, Jörg - 1998

A test procedure based on ranks is suggested to test for nonlinear cointegration. For two (or more) time series it is assumed that there exist monotonic transformations such that the normalised series can asymptotically be represented by independent Brownian motions. Rank test procedures based...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578004

Canonical correlation statistics for testing the cointegration rank in a reversed order

Breitung, Jörg - 1998

In this paper a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is used to test the hypothesis r = r0 against the alternative r r0. Such a test flips the null and alternative hypotheses of Johansen's LR test and can be used jointly with the LR test to construct a confidence set for the cointegration rank....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578561

Choice is suffering : a focused information criterion for model selection

Behl, Peter; Dette, Holger; Frondel, Manuel; Tauchmann, … - 2011

In contrast to conventional measures, the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) allows the purpose-specific selection of models, thereby reflecting the idea that one kind of model might be appropriate for inferences on a parameter of interest, but not for another. Ever since its invention, the FIC...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008935218