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Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected trajectory of a random variable in periods T+1 to T+H is a key ingredient for decision making under uncertainty. The probabilistic assessment about the set of possible trajectories that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003962215
This paper studies the implications of perceived default risk for aggregate output and productivity. Using a model of …-level probabilities of default which can be applied using data on firm-level employment and default risk. We obtain direct estimates of … firms per year. As expected, we find a strong correlation between default risk and a firm's future performance. We estimate …
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Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected trajectory of a random variable in periods T+1 to T+H is a key ingredient for decision making under uncertainty. The probabilistic assessment about the set of possible trajectories that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991097
Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected trajectory of a random variable in periods T 1 to T H is a key ingredient for decision making under uncertainty. The probabilistic assessment about the set of possible trajectories that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014035724