A competitive business cycle model is developed in which internal increasing returns translate a white noise random shock into temporarily agglomerated economic activity. Te qualitative nature of the economy varies over the cycle due to changes in the underlying economic structure, giving rise...

This paper examines the connection between the business cycle, nonlinearities, and asymmetries in the U.K. labor market. The economy is shown to display cyclical asymmetries; stochastic properties of variables such as employment, unemployment, real wages, and the unemployment-vacancy ratio...

Using U.K. data, the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis is rejected due to the predictive content of consumer confidence and not labor income or any other macroeconomic variable. The authors provide evidence suggesting that this cannot be explained by liquidity constraints and...

A competitive business cycle model is developed in which internal increasing returns translate a white noise random shock into temporarily agglomerated economic activity. Te qualitative nature of the economy varies over the cycle due to changes in the underlying economic structure, giving rise...

Consumer confidence is found to have predictive content for a wide range of macroeconomic variables including consumption growth, contrary to standard REPIH. We find that on UK data the REPIH is rejected due to the predictive content of consumer confidence, and not labour income. We explain this...

Using a simple state-space approach, this paper documents widespread non-linearities in the UK labour market and shows that these non-linearities can be successfully modeled using the notion of cyclical asymmetries. The economy is shown to display qualitative differences and the impulse response...